The weekly information service of «Prévoyance Professionnelle Suisse»
51/18 Page 05
Anne Yammine, rédactrice de «Prévoyance Professionnelle Suisse»
The year 2018 was considered promising by banking institutions. With hindsight, she is today described as "challenging", in the words of François Christen, Senior Economist at the Banque Profil de Gestion. By this term in fashion, analysts apologize for their very negative forecasts. World economic growth has continued apace in 2018 but is expected to weaken in 2019. The growth rate of the United States, which dominates the financial markets, rose to 2.8% in 2018. According to forecasts, should fall to 2.5% in 2019 and 1.8% in 2020.
This year, some nervousness has also been felt in the European markets: the slowdown in the US economy, the commercial war provoked by Trump, the mistrust of high-tech stocks and the instability of emerging markets are all of which extend the sense of uncertainty to Europe. If we look at all this in the context of the usual economic cycles, today we are in a climate of monetary overheating after the phases of recession, recovery and balanced expansion. According to Christen, there is a "return to reality" in which inflation, wage developments, returns and risk premiums are monitored.
Positive effects on the labor market
Marco Salvi from Avenir Suisse analyzes the future of work in the light of technological change and takes the opportunity to demystify the idea of unemployment caused by technological progress. There is no link between unemployment and innovation, he says. On the contrary, innovation creates jobs. The world of work is marked by a shift in society towards more part-time work and accumulated jobs, especially for women. Classical occupational profiles will not necessarily lose their appeal, but will remain in high demand as training profiles. Technology seems to have a positive impact on the job market as a whole. According to Marco Salvi, the risks can be absorbed by radical measures: the foresight must be linked to employees and no longer to companies. The age of retirement must be automatically adjusted: Switzerland has the second longest life expectancy after Spain, but the retirement age is low. Finally, the technical parameters of the second pillar must be dissociated from the policy and flexibilised.
Fiorenzo Manganiello, a professor at the Geneva Business School, is interested in the blockchain phenomenon, a kind of global database that is much talked about now. Financial services are becoming more automated. Thanks to onboarding, the fees for transfers made to different banks can be reduced by grouping several stages of work into one. The obstacle is still the lack of confidence between banks. In the case of Internet transfers, the blockchain can allow increased efficiency and speed. But we are still far from a widespread and safe use of block chains. The creation of a common network requires more cooperation between the actors involved.
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